After a third wave over the summer, COVID-19 cases are declining but vaccination has stalled. Economic activity has improved on the back of strengthened external demand, allowing for a stronger-than-envisaged buildup in international reserves. Inflation and the exchange rate have stabilized. Near-term challenges arise from uncertainty related to the pandemic and the gradual global economic recovery supporting high commodity prices.

Growth has remained strong and resilient, fueled by expanding mining activity. However, the escalation of the armed conflict in Eastern DRC is having major negative humanitarian effects and weighed on public finances; upcoming elections, scheduled at the end of 2023, are also adding to uncertainty. Since the last review, the government’s revenue shortfalls and rapid spending contributed to a deterioration of the external balance, excess domestic currency liquidity, exchange rate depreciation, and persistent inflation.

Considerable macroeconomic gains were achieved in 2021: the economic rebound was stronger than envisaged, driven by the non-extractive sector; CPI inflation declined to 5.3 percent year-on-year, accompanied by a stable exchange rate as the central bank stopped providing financing to the government; and an improved external position supported reserves accumulation. The 2021 fiscal outturn was also better-than-projected although domestic arrears accumulated. Despite excess liquidity, the banking sector faces vulnerabilities. The war in Ukraine is pushing up the cost of living and rising the fiscal costs associated with the fuel subsidy. Despite this and deteriorating global economic prospects, the outlook remains favorable and provides opportunities to consolidate macro stability and scale up structural reforms, though significant downside risks remain, and severe fragility persists.

Congo’s economic program aims to enhance macroeconomic stability and advance reforms to bolster economic management and improve the supply response of the economy. Progress in implementing the program has been affected negatively by the continuation of conflict. Fiscal policy aims at reducing government recourse to central bank financing. Structural reforms in revenue mobilization and public financial management (PFM) are critical for achieving the fiscal policy objectives. Pressing ahead with structural reforms is required for higher economic growth. Executive Directors suggest adoption of the Lending into Arrears Policy.

A recovery is underway, but the economic fallout from the global pandemic could be with us for years to come. With the crisis exacerbating prepandemic vulnerabilities, country prospects are diverging. Nearly half of emerging market and developing economies and some middle-income countries are now at risk of falling further behind, undoing much of the progress made toward achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

The audited consolidated financial statements of the International Monetary Fund as of April 30, 2019 and 2018

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