This paper examines the impact of deflation on fiscal aggregates. With deflation relatively rare in modern history, it relies mostly on the historical records, using a dataset panel covering 150 years and 21 advanced economies. Empirical evidence shows that deflation affects public finances mostly through increases in public debt ratios, reflecting a worsening in interest rate–growth differentials. On average, a mild rate of deflation increases public debt ratios by almost 2 percent of GDP a year, this impact being larger during recessionary deflations. Using a simulation model that accounts for composition effects and price expectations, we also find that, for European countries, a 2 percentage point deflationary shock in both 2015 and 2016 would lead to a deterioration in the primary balance of as much as 1 percent of GDP by 2019.

Deflation is one of the most feared terms in economics. It immediately conjures visions of abandoned farms and idle factories, streams of unemployed workers standing in breadlines. So when Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan started talking openly in 2003 about his fears of deflation, it sent waves of shock through the business press and the public. Many feared that the United States was entering a period of prolonged slump after a pronounced boom, much like Japan experienced throughout the 1990s. Others worried that a sustained fall in prices would have a cataclysmic impact on our nation's overhang of consumer debt. Yet another camp blamed low-wage manufacturing countries like China and high-volume retailers like Wal-Mart for becoming the engines of relentless deflation. In this important new book, Chris Farrell explains that deflation need not presage a collapse. In the process he gives a new way of looking at our economic and our financial futures. More than an introduction to the subject, Farrell points out that deflation has always been a fundamental aspect of the business cycle. For much of the 20th century, deflation had vanished from the economic scene, but its return is no cause for panic. Instead, properly understood, deflation presents opportunities and pitfalls in equal measure for businesses, corporations, the government, and our national economy.

The Economy can be an intimidating subject for some readers. They might feel that it's too complicated to understand, or that it's just for adults. This illuminating volume explains facets of the economy and how they are measured in plain language. It offers age-appropriate, real-life illustrations of the concepts to help middle-school readers relate on a personal level. Historical and current examples are cited throughout the text, which support curricular standards outlined in the C3 Framework for Social Studies State Standards.

Deflation is not inherently bad. It creates winners and losers. It also puts a temporary break on the concentration of power in the hands of government and in particular the executive branch. In short, inflation is potentially a great liberating force.

This paper presents the findings of an IMF task force set up to investigate issues related to the causes and consequences of deflation, as well as the the risks in individual economies and on a global scale. It focuses on four aspects: an analytical framework regarding the measurement, determinants, and costs of deflation; historical experiences of deflationary pressures in the nineteenth century and during the Great Depression, along with the recent experience of Japan and China; risk assessment issues; and policy options available.