Il y a dix ans à peine, la simulation n'était utilisée qu'en dernier recours. Force est de constater qu'aujourd'hui elle a pris le pas sur les autres techniques d'évaluation de systèmes. L'étude présentée concerne la simulation à événements discrets (SED) dont les outils sont de plus en plus sophistiqués avec, notamment, l'apparition d'environnements de SED. L'objet de cette thèse est de fournir une contribution à la spécification d'un environnement de SED. Il s'agit, en premier lieu, de cerner ses orientations et de dresser la liste des exigences qu'il doit satisfaire. Un deuxième travail consiste à caractériser le profil d'une méthode de modélisation pour la SED dont l'application conduit à plusieurs abstractions du système étudié, et notamment une description de son comportement basée sur le formalisme des Statecharts. La principale contribution de cette étude est de fournir une spécification formelle d'une méthode de traduction automatique d'un modèle comportemental en un modèle exécutable. La méthode proposée généralise l'expression de la traduction d'un sous-ensemble des Statecharts en code VHDL. Elle présente des avantages certains par rapport aux outils déjà existants, comme celui d'être clairement reproductible et facilement adaptable en machine, contrairement aux traducteurs commerciaux qui ne dévoilent pas leurs solutions techniques ; en outre, c'est une méthode formelle au sens où l'on sait établir qu'un Statechart est dans l'ensemble des “traduisibles” ; à chacun d'eux, on associe un code unique, dont le calcul est explicite. D'autres avantages majeurs sont inhérents à la technique de traduction qui respecte totalement la structure originelle du modèle et permet de générer un code modulaire, générique, réutilisable et hiérarchique. De plus, la hiérarchie ainsi respectée permet de conserver tout le potentiel de parallélisation du modèle originel.

Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.

Updated in its 3rd edition, Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning presents quickly applied methods for analyzing and resolving planning and policy issues at state, regional, and urban levels. Divided into two parts, Methods which presents quick methods in nine chapters and is organized around the steps in the policy analysis process, and Cases which presents seven policy cases, ranging in degree of complexity, the text provides readers with the resources they need for effective policy planning and analysis. Quantitative and qualitative methods are systematically combined to address policy dilemmas and urban planning problems. Readers and analysts utilizing this text gain comprehensive skills and background needed to impact public policy.

Rising densities of human settlements, migration and transport to reduce distances to market, and specialization and trade facilitated by fewer international divisions are central to economic development. The transformations along these three dimensions density, distance, and division are most noticeable in North America, Western Europe, and Japan, but countries in Asia and Eastern Europe are changing in ways similar in scope and speed. 'World Development Report 2009: Reshaping Economic Geography' concludes that these spatial transformations are essential, and should be encouraged. The conclusion is not without controversy. Slum-dwellers now number a billion, but the rush to cities continues. Globalization is believed to benefit many, but not the billion people living in lagging areas of developing nations. High poverty and mortality persist among the world's 'bottom billion', while others grow wealthier and live longer lives. Concern for these three billion often comes with the prescription that growth must be made spatially balanced. The WDR has a different message: economic growth is seldom balanced, and efforts to spread it out prematurely will jeopardize progress. The Report: documents how production becomes more concentrated spatially as economies grow. proposes economic integration as the principle for promoting successful spatial transformations. revisits the debates on urbanization, territorial development, and regional integration and shows how today's developers can reshape economic geography.

Introduction and background; Exploratory data analysis and graphics; Deterministic functions for ecological modeling; Probability and stochastic distributions for ecological modeling; Stochatsic simulation and power analysis; Likelihood and all that; Optimization and all that; Likelihood examples; Standar statistics revisited; Modeling variance; Dynamic models.

WSC is the premier international forum for disseminating recent advances in the field of system simulation In addition to a technical program of unsurpassed scope and quality, WSC provides the central meeting for practitioners, researchers, and vendors