Recent coastal disasters (e.g., Hurricane Sandy, Typhoon Haiyan) and chronic issues (e.g., Florida's "nuisance flooding") provide numerous examples of coastal communities struggling to adapt in the face of climate change impacts. Decision-makers and the public alike must reconcile the lack of "fit" between a rapidly changing environment and the effects of sea level rise, changes to storminess patterns, and possible variations in the frequency and magnitude of major El Niño events with relatively rigid and static governance structures. Work to reduce the impacts of coastal hazards and climate change has occurred periodically in disjointed and disconnected ways in many coastal communities, including those along the Oregon coast. In this thesis, I describe the efforts of a volunteer knowledge to action network within Tillamook County, Oregon, to comprehensively examine alternative future coastal climate and policy scenarios through the use of extensive stakeholder engagement and the spatially explicit modeling framework Envision. Six co-developed coastal adaptation policy scenarios and three climate change scenarios (with 15 random sub-climate simulations each) are evaluated here through a mixed-methods approach. First, the impacts of policy scenario implementation on stakeholder-identified metrics are statistically assessed in comparison to current land use policies (Status Quo). Next, I characterize the feasibility of implementing policy scenarios by reviewing current federal, Oregon state, Tillamook County, and local regulations and by interviewing relevant coastal organizations. The combination of stakeholder engagement, a powerful modeling framework, and the robust evaluation of policy scenario statistical significance and implementation feasibility provides a compelling opportunity to inform decision-making within the coastal communities of Tillamook County and elsewhere.

Summarizes the science of climate change and impacts on the United States, for the public and policymakers.