China’s anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), the DF-21D, has reached the equivalent of Initial Operational Capability. Although it probably has been deployed in small numbers, additional challenges and tests remain. This study examines the ASBM’s capability and history, showing how the DF-21D meets multiple priorities in Chinese defense modernization and in the national security bureaucracy, as well its implications for the United States. The ASBM’s physical threat to U.S. Navy ships will be determined by the development of associated systems and organizations, which currently limit data fusion and coordination in the complex task of identifying a U.S. aircraft carrier in the open ocean. Still, the ASBM poses a direct threat to the foundations of U.S. power project in Asia and will undermine the U.S. position, unless efforts to counter its political-military effects are taken.

China's process of modernizing its armed forces has involved the development of indigenously designed weapons systems-some of which appeared to undergo a process of development, procurement, and/or deployment that outpaced the estimates of U.S. and other foreign observers. This paper specifically focuses on four key weapons platforms that have been discussed as "surprise" developments to U.S. analysts: Type 039A/B/041 (Yuan-class) diesel-electric attack submarine, SC-19 anti-satellite (ASAT) system, Dongfeng-21D (DF-21D/CSS-5) anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), Jian-20 (J-20) stealth fighter aircraft. This report examines each of these purported "surprise" military developments in detail, and seeks to provide a clearer picture as to whether or not U.S. officials and analysts have demonstrated a pattern of underestimating the speed and depth of Chinese military development.This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.Contents: Indigenous Weapons Development in China's Military Modernization * Executive Summary * Section 1: The Yuan Class Submarine * Section 2: The Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Missile System * Section 3: The Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) * Section 4: The J-20 Fighter * ConclusionsThe History and Development of Yuan-Class Submarines - Prior to designing and implementing domestic submarines, China imported a majority of its submarine technology from Russia. The first indigenous diesel submarine, the Ming-class, was first launched in 1971; it was based on the Soviet Romeo-class submarine. The second domestically designed submarine, the Song-class, was first launched in 1994. China also bought Russian-designed Kilo-class submarines throughout the 1990s and 2000s. The Yuan-class submarines (Figure 1) share characteristics of both Russian Kilo-class and Chinese indigenous submarines (e.g., Song-class) and "are armed similarly to the Song-class SS."

Recent studies suggest that China is developing a new class of ballistic missiles that can be used against moving targets, such as ships. One such technology is anticipated to cover a range of 2,000 kilometers and operate at a speed of Mach 10. The threat is also capable of maneuvering both during the midcourse and terminal flight phases for the purposes of guidance, target acquisition, and countermeasures. This threat could greatly impact the current concept of operations of U.S. Navy ships and alter national defense policies. While current ballistic missile defense solutions are capable of intercepting threats in midcourse and terminal flight phases, no comprehensive system has been developed to counter a ballistic missile threat that can (1) maneuver upon reentry in the endoatmosphere and (2) be used to attack a moving defended area, such as a U.S. Navy carrier strike group (CSG). To fulfill this need, the Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Defense (ASBMD) team conducted research and developed a notional architecture for a system of systems solution that could be integrated into the existing Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) to effectively counter this threat. This thesis documents the process that was used to select and integrate the proposed ASBMD architecture.

Tells the story of the growing Chinese Navy - The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) - and its expanding capabilities, evolving roles and military implications for the USA. Divided into four thematic sections, this special collection of essays surveys and analyzes the most important aspects of China's navel modernization.

China’s shipbuilding industry has grown more rapidly than any other in modern history. Commercial shipbuilding output jumped thirteen-fold from 2002–12, ensuring that Beijing has largely reached its goal of becoming the world’s leading shipbuilder. Yet progress is uneven, with military shipbuilding leading overall but with significant weakness in propulsion and electronics for military and civilian applications. It has never been more important to assess what ships China can supply its navy and other maritime forces with, today and in the future. Chinese Naval Shipbuilding answers three pressing questions: What are China’s prospects for success in key areas of naval shipbuilding? What are the likely results for China’s navy? What are the implications for the U.S. Navy? To address these critical issues, this volume assembles some of the world’s leading experts and linguistic analysts, often pairing them in research teams. These sailors, scholars, industry professionals, and government specialists have commanded ships at sea, led shipbuilding programs ashore, toured Chinese vessels and production facilities, invested in Chinese shipyards, and analyzed and presented important data to top-level decision-makers in times of crisis. In synthesizing their collective insights, this book fills a key gap in our understanding of China, its shipbuilding industry, its navy, and what it all means.

The People's Republic of China is developing a capability that could alter the strategic landscape in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. Chinese writings indicate significant interest in, and a commitment of resources to, developing an assured capacity to hold at risk U.S. and other navies' ships at sea. Since at least 1990s, authoritative Chinese writings have demonstrated intent to field conventional ballistic missiles to engage naval combatants, including carrier battle groups, in the Western Pacific as part of a broader aerospace campaign in response to perceived infringements on Chinese sovereignty.

This is a philosophical treatise on war written by an Oxford grad who served in Afghanistan.