The staff report for the 2005 Article IV Consultation for Chile highlights short-term economic outlook and fiscal policy under the structural surplus rule. The government is firmly committed to the structural surplus rule. The core inflation rate has risen, reflecting the gradual closing of the output gap and the second-round effects of higher energy prices. The central bank plans to continue gradually withdrawing monetary stimulus. It has appropriately started to raise interest rates, and further increases will likely be needed, depending on developments in inflation and the closing of the output gap.

This staff report on People’s Republic of China 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights macroeconomic developments and outlook. China has maintained robust growth since the global crisis, but the heavy reliance on credit and investment to sustain activity is raising vulnerabilities. The consequence is a steady build-up of leverage that is eroding the strength of the financial sector, local government, and corporate balance sheets. This is most apparent in the continued rapid expansion in total social financing. The development of nontraditional finance marks a shift to more market-based intermediation, and the migration of activity to less-regulated parts of the system poses risks to financial stability.

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic recovery in Mexico that began in mid-2003 has continued in 2005, though at a slower pace. A broad-based expansion of economic activity in 2004, driven by a rebound of private consumption and private investment, took growth up to 4.4 percent. The fiscal accounts improved in 2004 on the strength of rising oil revenues and restraint of current expenditures, and the authorities achieved their target for the traditional deficit of 0.3 percent of GDP.

This paper analyzes the effect of an IMF Staff-Monitored Program for Chad to enhance economic development. Weak institutional capacity and governance concerns have limited economic development and donor support in Chad. It is highlighted that the reduction in the nonoil primary deficit envisaged in the 2013 budget appears appropriate, but expenditures linked to the regional security situation and lower than anticipated oil revenues imply large financing needs. There are significant economic and political risks to program implementation,; the regional security situation remains volatile, and the economy is highly dependent on volatile oil revenue.