This paper investigates the relationship between changes in accounting estimates and subsequent restatements. Theory suggests that depending on the underlying reason for an estimate change, this relationship can be either negative (for changes in estimates made in response to new developments or management having obtaining new information) or positive (for changes in accounting estimates made with an objective of managing earnings or changes that are not reliably estimated and are poorly audited). We hypothesize and find a positive relationship between changes in estimates and restatements. There is also support for the prediction that the presence of a change in accounting estimate(s) is associated with an increased likelihood of subsequent restatement to correct intentional misstatement. The findings of the study are of interest to accounting academics, regulators, and audit practitioners.

We investigate whether companies strategically change accounting estimates to manipulate earnings, as some claim (“opportunism” hypothesis), or whether these modifications represent changes in the underlying fundamentals of financially troubled or risky companies updating their priors about future expectations because of operational changes (“risk” hypothesis). Using audit fees, propensity to meet or beat earnings forecasts, and restatements as surrogates for managerial opportunism/bias, we find evidence consistent with the risk hypothesis and inconsistent with opportunism hypothesis. Further, consistent with the risk hypothesis, over the years prior to the estimate changes, companies are more prone to idiosyncratic risks such as going concern problems, misstatements, discontinued operations, corporate restructuring, charge-offs, and internal control problems. The lack of evidence supporting the opportunism hypothesis is not surprising because, under US GAAP, companies are required to disclose the “dollar effect” of an accounting estimate change on net income in their financial statements.

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