Cars in Europe: Supply Chains and Spillovers during COVID-19 Times

European countries have set ambitious goals to reduce their carbon emissions. These goals include a transition to electric vehicles (EVs)—a sector that China increasingly dominates globally—which could reduce the demand for Europe’s large and interconnected auto sector. This paper aims to size up the tradeoffs between Europe’s shift towards EVs and key macroeconomic outcomes, and analyze which policies may sharpen or ease them. Using state-of-the-art macroeconomic and trade models we analyze a scenario in which the share of Chinese cars in EU purchases rises by 15 percent over 5 years as a result of both a positive productivity shock for car production in China and a demand shock that shifts consumer preferences towards Chinese cars (given China’s dominance in the EV sector). We find that for the EU as a whole, the GDP cost of this shift is small in the short term, in the range of 0.2-0.3 percent of GDP, and close to zero over the long term. Adverse short-run effects are more significant for smaller economies heavily reliant on the car sector, mainly in Central Europe. Protectionist policies, such as tariffs on Chinese EVs, would raise the GDP cost of the EV transition. A further increase in Chinese FDI inflows that results in a significant share of Chinese EVs being produced in Central European economies, on the other hand, would offset losses in these economies by supporting their shift from supplying the internal combustion engine (ICE) production chain to that of EVs.

To the world at large, technology was synonymous with software. Within months, the subject of such conversations has changed dramatically. Today, the hardware that runs all software - semiconductors or chips - has become a subject of WhatsApp groups and international politics. The chip shortage during COVID-19 made governments take notice of this complex supply chain. The US began denying advanced semiconductors to Chinese companies. Worsening China-Taiwan relations further intensified the debate. By 2022, China, the US, India, the EU, and Japan had released plans worth billions of dollars for setting up new semiconductor facilities. This book is a comprehensive overview of this “meta-critical” technology. How are semiconductors important from a geopolitical perspective? Why did the US and Taiwan become powerhouses in this domain while Russia and India fell behind? Is China's semiconductor sector a threat to the world? What are the future trends to watch out for? These are the questions that this book answers.

Reducing transport sector emissions is an important pillar of the green transition. However, the transition to electric vehicles (EV) portends major changes in vehicle manufacturing activity, on which many livelihoods in Europe depend. Using the heterogeneity across European countries in the speed of transition to EV production and variation in sectoral and regional exposure to the automotive sector, this paper offers early evidence of the labor market implications of the EV transition. Our results suggest that the transformation of the auto sector is already having an adverse impact on employment in the affected sectors and regions, which can be expected to grow at least in the near term. Many of the affected workers will be able to retire and our analysis suggests that those who will have to transition to new “greener” jobs have a fair chance to do so when compared to other workers in the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, we find evidence that active labor market policies, specifically training, can help to reduce the adjustment costs for the affected workers.

This edited collection offers deeper understanding of the green and digital transition in the automotive industry. It explains how mobility products, services and business models are changing, the opportunities and threats correlated to this double transition as well as the competences and resources needed for firms in this fluid scenario. The book firstly provides an in-depth overview of the strategic and managerial implications for automotive and mobility incumbent firms. Chapters describe how sustainable technologies have been changing over time and identify the challenges of the shift imposed by the new competitive environment, such as the so-called servitization of the industry. The second section describes the new drivers of growth and profitability, such as open and collaborative innovation, and provides guidance on how incumbents can surf this turbulent landscape.

COVID-19 impacted economic activity in a way that hurt households, businesses, industries, and governments. What followed immediately was a period of high uncertainty, and what’s to come is still unknown. Economists have a lot to learn from this point in history, as different countries have handled this very differently from others. This book journeys through what one emerging economy has done to attempt recovery following immense disruption: Mexico's recovery following the pandemic. This volume offers empirical studies that trace the post-pandemic recovery period in Mexico, providing insight into what this emergent economy went through and did after 2021. The first part of the book examines macroeconomics, such as tax collection, and microeconomics, such as household income. These chapters draw on policy and the actions driving the economic recover in this emergent economy. The second half of the book focuses on what organizations can do to improve internal governance as well as market success. Full of new conceptual and empirical studies, the book explains what it looks like to rebuild an emerging economy. It will appeal to economists, economic scholars, and policymakers trying to make sense of the best ways to move forward following intense period of economic instability.

Abstract: We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model to Turkey. Sectoral supply shocks are based on the proximity requirements in each sector and the ability to work from home. Physical proximity determines the supply shock through its effect on infection rates. Sectoral demand shocks incorporate domestic and foreign demand, both of which adjust with infection rates. We calibrate demand shocks during COVID-19 using real-time credit card purchase data. Our results show that the optimal policy, which yields the lowest economic cost and saves the maximum number of lives, can be achieved under a full lockdown of 39 days. Economic costs are much larger for an open economy as the shocks are amplified through the international production network. A decline in foreign demand leads to losses in domestic sectors through international input-output linkages, accounting for a third of the total output loss. In addition, the reduction in capital flows deprives the network from its trade financing needs, where sectors with larger external finance needs experience larger losses. The policy options are limited given sparse fiscal resources to fight the pandemic domestically, while serving the external debt. We present historical evidence from 2001 crisis of Turkey, when fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies were employed altogether to deal with a triple crisis of balance of payments, banking, and sovereign debt