In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.

"Campaign 2012: Twelve Independent Ideas for Improving American Public Policy" is an indispensable guide to the questions facing White House hopefuls in 2012, as well as the challenges awaiting the winner. It presents authoritative analyses of a dozen key policy issues currently testing the nation: -domestic economic growth -America's role in the world -the budget deficit -China relations -health care -Afghanistan and Pakistan -federalism -Iran -reforming government institutions -the Middle East -climate change -terrorism This is truly Brookings at its best--independent expert analysis, presented in an accessible manner and offering viable solutions.

One of America’s most important young journalists delivers the first substantial piece of narrative nonfiction to chronicle the hard-fought closing months of the 2012 presidential campaign in PANIC 2012. Michael Hastings – BuzzFeed correspondent at large; Rolling Stone contributor; George Polk Award winner; and critically acclaimed, New York Times-bestselling author of The Operators – presents an in-your-face, on-the-ground, real-time, singular account of how the Obama campaign privately panicked and ultimately recovered after the President’s disastrous performance in his first debate with Mitt Romney. In the tradition of iconoclastic journalists such as Hunter S. Thompson, Richard Ben Cramer, and P. J. O’Rourke, Hastings offers an edgy, rollicking, wholly original portrayal of the enormous and intense political operation that is an American presidential campaign.

A unique "moneyball" look at the 2012 U.S. presidential contest between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney "Game changer." We heard it so many times during the 2012 U.S. presidential election. But what actually made a difference in the contest—and what was just hype? In this groundbreaking book, John Sides and Lynn Vavreck tell the dramatic story of the election—with a big difference. Using an unusual "moneyball" approach and drawing on extensive quantitative data, they look beyond the anecdote, folklore, and conventional wisdom that often pass for election analysis to separate what was truly important from what was irrelevant. The Gamble combines this data with the best social science research and colorful on-the-ground reporting, providing the most accurate and precise account of the election yet written—and the only book of its kind. In a new preface, the authors reflect on the place of The Gamble in the tradition of presidential election studies, its reception to date, and possible paths for future social science research.

To what extent are the techniques of campaigning and media management critical to the outcome of modern elections? This book brings together a group of leading scholars to provide a comprehensive analysis of the role and impact of political communications during election campaigns. They set the context of election campaigning in Britain, and the methodology used to undertand media effects, review party strategies and resulting media coverage, and draw together evidence of the impact of the 1997 British General Election campaign, analyzing how far television and the press media influenced the public′s civic engagement, agenda priorities, and party preferences.

This ground-breaking book redefines campaigning and explains how to create and deliver a compelling campaign that can be applied in any aspect of your professional and personal life. Based on a claim that is both bold and true, this book introduces and demonstrates a new, unique and complete approach to communication for change - the Campaign It! model. It is a model developed and used by leading professionals in communications and campaigning to create influence and change at the highest levels business, politics and society. It is transferable to any sphere of life. It is tried and tested. And it works. Simply put: to achieve change and be successful you always have to inform, persuade and gain agreement from significant people and organizations. The Campaign It! model enables you to do this powerfully and positively.

Presents a humorous ode to the 2012 presidential election that likens the campaign to a three-ring circus and includes riffs on figures ranging from Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich to Rick Perry and Rick Santorum.