Brazil is at crossroads, emerging slowly from a historic recession that was preceded by a huge economic boom. Reasons for the historic bust following a boom are manifold. Policy mistakes were an important contributory factor, and included the pursuit of countercyclical policies, introduced to deal with the effects of the global financial crisis, beyond the point where they were helpful. More fundamentally, it reflects longstanding structural weaknesses plaguing the economy, that also help explain Brazil’s uninspiring growth performance over the past four decades.

This study seeks to identify the determinants of Brazil's favourable export performance until the mid-1980s, especially in the field of manufactured goods. Two hypotheses figure prominently in the analysis. The export success may be due to Brazil's specialization in industries which made intensive use of the country's relatively abundant productive factors. Alternatively, economic policies may be responsible for the success in manufactured exports.

July 12, 2011-Over the course of a generation, Brazil has emerged as both a driver of growth in South America and as an active force in world politics. A new Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)-sponsored Independent Task Force report asserts "that it is in the interest of the United States to understand Brazil as a complex international actor whose influence on the defining global issues of the day is only likely to increase."Brazil currently ranks as the world's fifth-largest landmass, fifth-largest population, and expects to soon be ranked the fifth largest economy. The report, Global Brazil and U.S.-Brazil Relations, recommends that "U.S. policymakers recognize Brazil's standing as a global actor, treat its emergence as an opportunity for the United States, and work with Brazil to develop complementary policies."The Task Force is chaired by former secretary of energy Samuel W. Bodman and former president of the World Bank James D. Wolfensohn, and directed by CFR Senior Fellow and Director for Latin America Studies, and Director of the Global Brazil Initiative Julia E. Sweig.Recognizing Brazil's global role, the report recommends that the Obama administration now fully endorse the country's bid for a seat as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). It argues that "a formal endorsement from the United States for Brazil would go far to overcome lingering suspicion within the Brazilian government that the U.S. commitment to a mature relationship between equals is largely rhetorical."Domestically, Brazil's "inclusive growth has translated into a significant reduction of inequality, an expansion of the middle class, and a vibrant economy, all framed within a democratic context." Consequently, Brazil has been able to use its economic bona fides to leverage a stronger position in the international, commercial, and diplomatic arena.The report stresses the importance of regular communication between the presidents of both countries. "Cooperation between the United States and Brazil holds too much promise for miscommunication or inevitable disagreements to stand in the way of potential gains." A mature, working relationship means that "the United States and Brazil can help each other advance mutual interests even without wholesale policy agreements between the two," notes the report.The Task Force further recommends that- the U.S. Congress "include an elimination of the ethanol tariff in any bill regarding reform to the ethanol and biofuel tax credit regime."- the United States "take the first step to waive visa requirements for Brazilians by immediately reviewing Brazil's criteria for participation in the Visa Waiver Program."- the U.S. State Department create an Office for Brazilian Affairs and the National Security Council (NSC) centralize its efforts under a NSC director for Brazil in order to better coordinate the current decentralized U.S. policy.The bipartisan Task Force includes thirty distinguished experts on Brazil who represent a range of perspectives and backgrounds. The report includes a number of additional views by Task Force members, including one that notes, "We believe that a more gradual approach [regarding Brazil's inclusion as a full UNSC member] would likely have more success in navigating the diplomatic complexities presented by U.S. support for Brazil." Another view asserts, "If the United States supports, as the Obama administration has said it does, leadership structures in international institutions that are more reflective of international realities, it must support without qualifications Brazil's candidacy [for the UNSC]."

Does what economies export matter for development? If so, can industrial policies improve on the export basket generated by the market? This book approaches these questions from a variety of conceptual and policy viewpoints. Reviewing the theoretical arguments in favor of industrial policies, the authors first ask whether existing indicators allow policy makers to identify growth-promoting sectors with confidence. To this end, they assess, and ultimately cast doubt upon, the reliability of many popular indicators advocated by proponents of industrial policy. Second, and central to their critique, the authors document extraordinary differences in the performance of countries exporting seemingly identical products, be they natural resources or 'high-tech' goods. Further, they argue that globalization has so fragmented the production process that even talking about exported goods as opposed to tasks may be misleading. Reviewing evidence from history and from around the world, the authors conclude that policy makers should focus less on what is produced, and more on how it is produced. They analyze alternative approaches to picking winners but conclude by favoring 'horizontal-ish' policies--for instance, those that build human capital or foment innovation in existing and future products—that only incidentally favor some sectors over others.

This review of Brazil's trade policy focuses on the manufacturing industry and its impact on industrial efficiency and manufactured export growth. It includes discussion of the Brazilian experience with policies to promote and regulate the development and acquisition of industrial technology and their impact on output and exports. The report is organized in three separate parts: (i) background on industrial development; (ii) a review of trade policies, concentrating on a quantification of the relative incentives for production oriented toward the domestic market and for exports; and (iii) a review of technology policy, including development of human resources, basic research and development, industrial technology, and technology transfer. Three case studies exemplify the main types of technological transfer. The report does not attempt to elaborate all possible policy implications but to present the main information and analytical tools to be considered in the preparation and evaluation of policy alternatives.