This synthesis focuses on estimates of biodiversity change as projected for the 21st century by models or extrapolations based on experiments and observed trends. The term "biodiversity" is used in a broad sense as it is defined in the Convention on Biological Diversity to mean the abundance and distributions of and interactions between genotypes, species, communities, ecosystems and biomes. This synthesis pays particular attention to the interactions between biodiversity and ecosystem services and to critical "tipping points" that could lead to large, rapid and potentially irreversible changes. Comparisons between models are used to estimate the range of projections and to identify sources of uncertainty. Experiments and observed trends are used to check the plausibility of these projections.

Climatic change, conservation biology

Quantitative models are increasingly being used to assess the impact of socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and environmental services. Regardless of the scenario, the decline of biodiversity will continue throughout the 21st century. Land-use changes drive biodiversity changes in terrestrial systems, while overfishing drives changes in marine systems, and climate change affects all realms. The loss of habitats will lead to local population decreases, and global extinctions will occur at unpredictable rates due to the lag between environmental changes and their effects. To address this, we need to focus more on the relationship between the decline of ecosystem services and the position of species responsible for that function in the trophic hierarchy. Perspectives on Global Biodiversity Scenarios and Environmental Services in the 21st Century makes biodiversity scenarios understandable, relevant, and valuable to stakeholders by using effective language and focused communication techniques. Instead of merely showing the potential effects of global change on biodiversity, scenarios should consider the feedback connecting environmental forces. Biodiversity provides numerous essential environmental services crucial to human well-being both now and in the future. The climate is a critical component of ecosystem functioning and directly and indirectly affects human health. The target audience includes biology and environmental science students and faculty, scientists, social workers who generate and collaborate on biodiversity scenarios, policymakers, and corporations with a basic science understanding.

The scientific community has voiced two general concerns about the future of the earth. Firstly, climatologists and oceanographers have focused on the changes in our physical environment, ie climate, oceans, and air. And secondly, environmental biologists have addressed issues of conservation and the extinction of species. There is increasing evidence that these two broad concerns are intertwined and mutually dependent. Past changes in biodiversity have both responded to and caused changes in the earths environment. In its discussions of ten key terrestrial biomes and freshwater ecosystems, this volume uses our broad understanding of global environmental change to present the first comprehensive scenarios of biodiversity for the twenty-first century. Combining physical earth science with conservation biology, the book provides a starting-point for regional assessments on all scales. The book will be of interest to those concerned with guiding research on the changing environment of the earth and with planning future policy, especially in accordance with the Global Biodiversity Convention.

The scientific community has voiced two general concerns about the future of the earth. Climatologists and oceanographers have focused on the changes in our physical environment -- changes in the climate, the oceans, and the chemistry of the air we breathe. Environmental biologists, on the other hand, have addressed issues of conservation and the extinction of species. There is increasing evidence that these two broad concerns are intertwined and mutually dependent. Past changes in biodiversity have both responded to and caused changes in Earth's environment. In its discussions of ten key terrestrial biomes and freshwater ecosystems, this volume uses our broad understanding of global environmental change to present the first comprehensive scenarios of biodiversity for the twenty-first century. Combining physical earth science with conservation biology, Future Scenarios of Global Biodiversity provides a starting point for regional assessments on all scales. The book will be of interest to those concerned with guiding research on the changing environment of the earth and with planning future policy, especially in accordance with the Global Biodiversity Convention.

First of its kind and unique in its blend of theoretical and practical approaches for mainstreaming biodiversity in impact assessment.