This thesis develops multivariate models to estimate the determinants of three measures of effectiveness for surface warfare officers (SWO): retention, promotion, and early professional qualifications. Using data from the Navy Officer Master File, Navy Officer Loss File, and Navy Personnel Research and Development Center's Traintrack System File, logit regression equations are employed to estimate the probability of SWO retention between the Lieutenant and Lieutenant Commander selection boards (1981 90), the probability of promotion to Lieutenant Commander (1985-90), and the probability of receiving early professional qualifications by the time of the Lieutenant selection boards (1981-85). The probabilities are modeled as a function of background factors that represent personal demographics, undergraduate education, Navy experience, and Navy training. The findings reveal that a large portion of the variation in SWO measures of effectiveness reflect differences in human capital acquired via precommissioning education or via Navy training. Performance differences by commissioning source and college selectivity of undergraduate education are specifically highlighted. Based upon the research results, it is recommended that a cost-benefit analysis be conducted to determine the optimal officer accession source mix.

This thesis develops multivariate models to estimate the determinants of three measures of effectiveness for surface warfare officers (SWO): retention, promotion, and early professional qualifications. Using data from the Navy Officer Master File, Navy Officer Loss File, and Navy Personnel Research and Development Center's Traintrack System File, logit regression equations are employed to estimate the probability of SWO retention between the Lieutenant and Lieutenant Commander selection boards (1981 90), the probability of promotion to Lieutenant Commander (1985-90), and the probability of receiving early professional qualifications by the time of the Lieutenant selection boards (1981-85). The probabilities are modeled as a function of background factors that represent personal demographics, undergraduate education, Navy experience, and Navy training. The findings reveal that a large portion of the variation in SWO measures of effectiveness reflect differences in human capital acquired via precommissioning education or via Navy training. Performance differences by commissioning source and college selectivity of undergraduate education are specifically highlighted. Based upon the research results, it is recommended that a cost-benefit analysis be conducted to determine the optimal officer accession source mix.

This thesis investigates the effect of commissioning programs on career progression for Navy surface warfare officers (SWOs). This study specifies and estimates three multivariate regression models to analyze the relationship between commissioning source and officer performance using retention and promotion to O-4 as performance measures. As a measure of retention, we used retention after expiration of the initial minimum service requirement. The data was acquired from Officer Master File (OMF) via the Navy Econometric Modeling (NEM) online data system. The file contained 10,295 observations. All observations were surface warfare officers who were before the promotion board between fiscal years 1994 through 2004. The data contained information about demographics, professional and educational background, and separation and promotion information for officers. The analysis of all three multivariate regression models indicates that commissioning source is a significant determinant of retention and promotion for the SWO community. Contrary to the initial assumption, while OCS graduates have the highest probability of staying in the SW community, USNA graduates have the lowest probability. Although USNA graduates were initially expected to have higher promotion rates, the results suggest that they are less likely to promote to the grade of O-4 than officers commissioned through the NROTC-contract program. However, USNA graduates have a higher probability of promotion than officers from OCS, the NROTC scholarship program, and from "other sources."

The goal of this study was to analyze the effectiveness of the new SWOS-at-Sea training for newly commissioned surface warfare officers that was introduced in 2003. The new regime combined self-paced computer-based training (CBT) with on-the-job training (OJT) on-board an officer's ship. The study relied on a variety of analytical techniques, including a literature review of CBT and OJT training, interviews and focus groups with junior and senior surface warfare officers, and statistical analysis of test scores at the Surface Officer Division Officer Course (SWOSDOC). The literature review pointed out that no previous studies had analyzed a learning course that involved CBT when the student was also performing a full-time job. Nonetheless, the literature review noted that structured OJT is preferred to unstructured OJT, as in SWOS-at-Sea. Interviews also indicated that division officers prefer face-to-face learning and they felt they were trying to perform as division officers without the requisite skills. The statistical analysis of test scores at the SWOSDOC 'leveling' course found significant differences in performance between ship type, ship home port location, commissioning source, undergraduate major, and gender. The results highlighted significant differences in the learning environments aboard ships and suggested the need for additional research on training opportunities offered aboard ships.

This thesis analyzes the impact of the Navy's fully-funded graduate education program on Surface Warfare Officer performance. Three measures of officer performance are used: (1) probability of promotion to O-4; (2) percent of all LT FITREPs recommended for early promotion; and (3) the probability of receiving an early promotion recommendation on the last LT FITREP. Navy Officer Master Files (FY1981 through FY1990), created by Prof. William Bowman, USNA, are merged with NPRDC's Officer FITREP Files to statistically analyze performance differences between Surface Warfare Officers with and without fully-funded graduate education. Ordinary least squares and non-linear maximum likelihood techniques are used to estimate the three performance models. Since selection into the fully-funded program is not random, an attempt is made to model the selection process and to correct for the potential bias in the estimated coefficient of graduate education in the performance models. The findings reveal that fully-funded graduate education has a significant positive impact on the probability of promotion to O-4, but insignificant effects on receiving early promotion recommendations on LT FITREPs. Additionally, selectivity does not appear to bias estimates of fully-funded graduate education in the performance models.

This thesis analyzes the impact of the Navy's fully-funded graduate education program on Surface Warfare Officer performance. Three measures of officer performance are used: (1) probability of promotion to O-4; (2) percent of all LT FITREPs recommended for early promotion; and (3) the probability of receiving an early promotion recommendation on the last LT FITREP. Navy Officer Master Files (FY1981 through FY1990), created by Prof. William Bowman, USNA, are merged with NPRDC's Officer FITREP Files to statistically analyze performance differences between Surface Warfare Officers with and without fully-funded graduate education. Ordinary least squares and non-linear maximum likelihood techniques are used to estimate the three performance models. Since selection into the fully-funded program is not random, an attempt is made to model the selection process and to correct for the potential bias in the estimated coefficient of graduate education in the performance models. The findings reveal that fully-funded graduate education has a significant positive impact on the probability of promotion to O-4, but insignificant effects on receiving early promotion recommendations on LT FITREPs. Additionally, selectivity does not appear to bias estimates of fully-funded graduate education in the performance models.