Changing climatic conditions, demographics, and land uses are projected to alter the provisioning of ecosystem services in estuarine, coastal and nearshore marine ecosystems, necessitating mitigation and adaptation policies and management. The current paradigm of siloed research efforts occurring in parallel to, rather than in collaboration with, decision-makers will be insufficient for the rapid responses required to adapt to and mitigate for projected changing conditions in coastal areas. Here, I suggest a different paradigm: one where research begins by engaging decision-makers in the identification of priority research needs (biophysical, economic, and social), and in which researchers analyze and present data in a format most accessible to decision makers for implementing immediate changes. This paper provides insight into the varied demands for scientific research as described by decision makers on the Oregon coast by synthesizing interview data into a comprehensive portfolio of current scientific research needs and important ecosystem services. This research is an important first step in advancing efforts to develop scientific data that meet the needs of policy and decision makers working with evidence-based decision making to preserve ecosystem services.

Recent coastal disasters (e.g., Hurricane Sandy, Typhoon Haiyan) and chronic issues (e.g., Florida's "nuisance flooding") provide numerous examples of coastal communities struggling to adapt in the face of climate change impacts. Decision-makers and the public alike must reconcile the lack of "fit" between a rapidly changing environment and the effects of sea level rise, changes to storminess patterns, and possible variations in the frequency and magnitude of major El Niño events with relatively rigid and static governance structures. Work to reduce the impacts of coastal hazards and climate change has occurred periodically in disjointed and disconnected ways in many coastal communities, including those along the Oregon coast. In this thesis, I describe the efforts of a volunteer knowledge to action network within Tillamook County, Oregon, to comprehensively examine alternative future coastal climate and policy scenarios through the use of extensive stakeholder engagement and the spatially explicit modeling framework Envision. Six co-developed coastal adaptation policy scenarios and three climate change scenarios (with 15 random sub-climate simulations each) are evaluated here through a mixed-methods approach. First, the impacts of policy scenario implementation on stakeholder-identified metrics are statistically assessed in comparison to current land use policies (Status Quo). Next, I characterize the feasibility of implementing policy scenarios by reviewing current federal, Oregon state, Tillamook County, and local regulations and by interviewing relevant coastal organizations. The combination of stakeholder engagement, a powerful modeling framework, and the robust evaluation of policy scenario statistical significance and implementation feasibility provides a compelling opportunity to inform decision-making within the coastal communities of Tillamook County and elsewhere.

Summarizes the science of climate change and impacts on the United States, for the public and policymakers.

Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities is aimed at assessing the state of knowledge about key climate impacts and consequences to various sectors and communities in the northwest United States. It draws on a wealth of peer-reviewed literature, earlier state-level assessment reports conducted for Washington (2009) and Oregon (2010), as well as a risk-framing workshop. As an assessment, it aims to be representative (though not exhaustive) of the key climate change issues as reflected in the growing body of Northwest climate change science, impacts, and adaptation literature now available. This report will serve as an updated resource for scientists, stakeholders, decision makers, students, and community members interested in understanding and preparing for climate change impacts on Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. This more detailed, foundational report is intended to support the key findings presented in the Northwest chapter of the Third National Climate Assessment.