"It is estimated that the world will need to produce as much food in the next forty years as it did in the past 8,000 years. Moving that food to where it is needed will require a massive investment in logistics, in port and transport infrastructure, as well as in distribution, processing and packaging networks within countries. Governments will not make those investments. Instead the task will fall on the world's investments. Instead the task will fall on the world's commodity trading (merchandising) companies. When most people think of agricultural commodity merchangs, traders and speculators, they imagine dubious characters manipulating markets and pushing up food prices for the world's poor. Few people understand what agricultural traders actually do, and how their markets function. This book is intended to at least partly correct that situation. It is aimed at students, journalists, legislators, regulators, and at everyone who would like to learn more about the sector."--Quatrième de couverture

The recent global financial crisis exposed the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models. Not only did macro models fail to predict the crisis, they seemed incapable of explaining what was happening to the economy. Policymakers felt abandoned by the conventional tools of the now obsolete Washington consensus and the World Trade Organization’s oversimplified faith in free markets.The traditional models for agricultural commodities have so far failed to take into account the uncertain character of the global agricultural economy and its ferocious consequences in food price volatility, the worst in 300 years, yielding hunger riots throughout the world. This book explores the elements which could help to close this fundamental modeling gap. To what extent should traditional models be questioned regarding agricultural commodities? Are prices on these markets foreseeable? Can their evolution be either predicted or convincingly simulated, and if so, by which methods and models? Presenting contributions from acknowledged experts from several countries and backgrounds – professors at major international universities or researchers within specialized international organizations – the book concentrates on four issues: the role of expectations and capacity of prediction; policy issues related to development strategies and food security; the role of hoarding and speculation and finally, global modeling methods. The book offers a renewed wisdom on some of the core issues in the world economy today and puts forward important innovations in analyzing these core issues, among which the modular modeling design, the Momagri model being a seminal example of it. Reading this book should inspire fruitful revisions in policy-making to improve the welfare of populations worldwide.

Agricultural Prices and Commodity MarketAnalysis discusses the application of economictheory to agriculture and the foodindustry, using quantitative tools. The blendof theory and application is unique in detailinghow demand and supply can be measuredand how econometric simulationmodels can be constructed and evaluated.This revised edition focuses on forecastingand generating long-term projections as wellas discussing the relatively unexplored areaof stochastic modeling, which is critical inhandling crop yield variability. Other topicscovered include agricultural policy analysisand futures/options markets. The role oftime series models in improving structuralequations and forecasting techniques providesa capstone.

The Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations as well ...

The Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations as well as input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of the prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. The publication consists of 11 Chapters; Chapter 1 covers agricultural and food markets; Chapter 2 provides regional outlooks and the remaining chapters are dedicated to individual commodities.

The book aims at filling the wide gap in the existing literature to trade agricultural derivatives markets, specifically volatility. The ideas shared in this book can be of immense help to all the professionals participating in these markets, whatever be their role. The vision of the book is to help readers understand and grasp the specific nuances of trading in agri-commodity markets and industry practices, so that they are able to utilize it for creating significant value.The book covers all the major topics to help readers explain comprehensively the portfolio management techniques while trading volatility as an asset class in agricultural markets. The major theme of the book is to develop a systematic approach to understand the basics of the volatility trading in agricultural markets. The book progresses through various sections in a step by step approach building the basics of the portfolio management in agricultural volatility trading and discussing advanced concepts. While the target focus is to explain the agricultural markets in more detail, the application is not limited to agricultural commodities. The same principles can be applied to other commodities including metals and energy. Thus, the book can cater to a wider audience covering the entire commodities industry in their need to understand the application of derivatives to trade volatility as an asset class.