This research effort employs a System Dynamics methodology to model Air Force aircraft production break costs. The Air Force currently used the Anderlohr, Modified Anderlohr, and Retrograde methods for the estimation of aircraft production breaks. These methods offer little insight into the dynamic behavior of an aircraft production break. System Dynamics offers a unique way of capturing expert opinions in this area and dynamically presenting behaviors of an Air Force aircraft production line during a production break. Development of this model followed a four-step process of conceptualization, formulation, testing, and implementation. Five Air Force aircraft production break experts in were interviewed to formulate and validate the model. This research identified manpower turbulence and parts disruptions as the main cost drivers during the initial shutdown of an aircraft production line. During the break, there were minimal costs and no main costs drivers. During the restart of production, new requirements and the reconstitution of the workforce were found to be key cost drivers. Expert feedback indicates the System Dynamics model developed during this research will prove most valuable in policy formulation and in training of cost analysts.

Illustrates estimation of support investment costs and recurring operations and support costs through a Model for estimating Aircraft Cost of Ownership (MACO), which also provides a framework for future research. MACO is an outgrowth of an earlier evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of the most widely used aircraft life cycle cost models. It combines new algorithms for major, maintenance-related costs with formulas drawn from existing models for other cost elements. MACO relates a full set of ownership cost elements to component level reliability and maintainability characteristics and to aircraft design, operations, logistics, and deployment parameters, although the MACO equations would have to be reorganized before they could be used to estimate costs according to the cost structure of the latest Cost Analysis Improvement Group guide. MACO computes resource quantities in units that can be related directly to Air Force programming categories, including base maintenance manning (by work center), depot manning, and recoverable spares inventory levels. Output and input parameters accommodate annual changes in system parameters and operating conditions such as component reliability and aircraft inventory size and activity rates.

A proof-of-concept demonstration of System Dynamics modeling was developed to determine the relative merit of the approach and then an experiment compared the results of the System Dynamics model with a traditional linear regression readiness model. This report documents the proof of concept model development and the experiment's results. An aviation readiness production model was formulated using system dynamics. The model was developed over a period of six months with participation from subject matter experts at Commander Naval Air Force and Commander Strike Fighter Wing Pacific. The model incorporates monthly flight hour execution taking into consideration aircraft mission capable rates and the location of a squadron relative to the Fleet Response Plan (FRP) training cycle to generate Primary Mission Area points in strike warfare that are accumulated to generate an Attack Index. Concurrently, a renewed Strike Warfare Proficiency (Strike PRO) analysis was conducted for comparison. Twenty-four Carrier Air Wing (CVW) events at NSAWC Fallon, NV were used to benchmark performance. The results of the Strike PRO algorithm and the results of the System Dynamics Model were each compared against the performance metric. Source code for the System Dynamics Model is included as an appendix to the report.

This research was conducted to investigate the United States Air Force pilot production and allocation system. It applies system dynamics methodology as an effective means to analyze this complex system. The Pilot Production/Allocation Management Model (PP/AMM) is developed using DYNAMICS III simulation language. The model is an aggregated representation of the system which deals with recruitment, allocation, and training of pilots. It divides pilot resources into three core forces, rated supplement resources, and Undergraduate Pilot Training instructor pilots. Initially, the system is analyzed by a discussion of a cost module and of system equilibrium. Next, various force build-up, draw-down, and attrition scenarios are analyzed. A change of management policy involving the forecasting of attrition rates concludes the analysis and demonstrates an application of the model. This example also shows how rapidly and economically information can be obtained from the model. (Author).