This is the second volume in a two-part series on frontiers in regional research. It identifies methodological advances as well as trends and future developments in regional systems modelling and open science. Building on recent methodological and modelling advances, as well as on extensive policy-analysis experience, top international regional scientists identify and evaluate emerging new conceptual and methodological trends and directions in regional research. Topics such as dynamic interindustry modelling, computable general equilibrium models, exploratory spatial data analysis, geographic information science, spatial econometrics and other advanced methods are the central focus of this book. The volume provides insights into the latest developments in object orientation, open source, and workflow systems, all in support of open science. It will appeal to a wide readership, from regional scientists and economists to geographers, quantitatively oriented regional planners and other related disciplines. It offers a source of relevant information for academic researchers and policy analysts in government, and is also suitable for advanced teaching courses on regional and spatial science, economics and political science.

Types of economic deforestation models. Household and firm-level models. Regional-level models. National and macro-level models. Priority areas for future research.

This paper presents a model of the Malawi maize commodity market that is developed for use as a policy analysis tool. The model captures national and local maize market dynamics and the linkages existing within the maize market in the country. This research has been undertaken in order to provide policy makers with a robust tool which can be used to simulate the impact of policy changes on markets and households. Such a tool ensures the availability of evidence for informing food and agricultural policies. The model is a multiequation partial equilibrium model of the national maize market in Malawi. It is developed and linked in a top-down unidirectional manner to the local maize economy via a price linkage equation. A nonbehavioral arithmetic microaccounting approach is used to estimate rural household incomes that are linked to the local economy, through which macroeconomic-level maize price changes transmit. The model can be used as a tool for analyzing the impacts of macroeconomic and agricultural policy changes on the maize industry as well as on rural households that rely on maize. The novelty of the model is that it takes into account the interrelationships between farm/household, local-economy, and national maize market prices, as well as economic theory and existing empirical evidence, to build a framework that is capable of linking to the macroeconomy rural subsistence households that are traditionally deemed to have few or no backward and forward linkages.

We conduct an ex ante evaluation of the impacts of a potential global recession within the next years and the possible policy responses to support economic activity and improve social indicators in five Central American countries: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We review the economic and social evolution of the past decades in those countries, and we consider a global scenario that includes further deceleration of world growth, lower commodity prices, and a decline in remittances and capital flows to those countries. We simulate those scenarios and related policy issues using recursive dynamic CGE models for the countries considered. The global shock is run under fixed exchange rates and flexible exchange rates (in the case of El Salvador, which has adopted the US dollar as the domestic currency, the simulation of a flexible exchange rate is just indicative). In all cases, a flexible exchange rate delivers better results in terms of GDP per capita, by softening the overall economic impact of the external shocks. Two possible interventions to deal with the recession are simulated: one focuses on policies to strengthen the safety net for the poor; the other applies a more general macroeconomic stimulus (a tax cut plus a modest increase in public investments, financed by un-conventional monetary policy) to try to cushion the shock. For all countries except El Salvador, these two simulations are run with a flexible exchange rate. In the first policy simulation GDP per capita in those countries does not change much, but the poor groups targeted clearly improve their incomes and consumption, helping them the most during the years of the negative shocks. In the second simulation, the macroeconomic stimulus improves the performance of the economies, allowing GDP per capita to be higher than in the case of the shock alone. In summary, facing a potential global downturn as the one simulated here, those countries that have flexible exchange rates and the use of domestic monetary policies can use a mix of adjustment in exchange rates combined with targeted poverty transfers and macroeconomic stimulus to alleviate the shock. El Salvador, which does not have the exchange rate and monetary instruments, will require further support from multilateral and bilateral sources to soften the shock

Gold mining is the main economic activity in Madre de Dios, Peru. Despite efforts, the state has not yet managed to identify a formalization process achievable for small operators. In addition, many small-scale miners are driven by poverty and need income to provide for their basic needs. Because participation in small-scale mining is largely driven by poverty, it is likely that, in the longer term, much artisanal mining activity will disappear naturally if, through economic development, more attractive work options become available. This paper reviews the importance of illegal mining in Madre de Dios and the potential for development of the agriculture sector. It also analyzes three different policy scenarios: (1) government spending to rectify the environmental damage in the region caused by illegal mining, (2) development of the agricultural sector in the region, and (3) a final scenario with both environmental restoration and agricultural development. Results show that additional government spending in Madre de Dios does not significantly affect the rest of the country and that investment in agriculture can achieve structural change in the gross domestic product of Madre de Dios. Development of the agricultural sector also slightly increases household incomes in Madre de Dios.

Since 2007, the government of Ghana has been providing subsidized agricultural machines to private enterprises established as Agricultural Mechanization Services Enterprise Centers (AMSEC) to scale up tractor-hire services to smallholder farmers. Although farmer’s demand for mechanization has increased in recent years, most of this demand concentrates on land preparation (plowing) service. Using the firm investment model and recent data, this paper quantitatively assesses whether AMSEC as a private enterprise is a viable business model attractive to private investors. Even though the intention of the government is to promote private sector-led mechanization, findings suggest that the AMSEC model is unlikely to be a profitable business model attractive to private investors even with the current level of subsidy. The low tractor utilization rate as a result of low operational scale is the most important constraint to the intertemporal profitability of tractor-hire services. Our findings further support the argument of Pingali, Bigot, and Binswanger (1987), who indicated that mechanization service centers supported through government’s heavy subsidy are not a policy option anywhere in the world, even in the current situation in Ghana. Although the tractor rental service market is a proper way of mechanizing agriculture in a smallholder-dominated agricultural economy such as Ghana, this paper concludes that the development of such a market depends crucially on a number of factors, including increased tractor use through migration across the two very different rainfall zones (north and south), increased tractor use through multiple tasks, and use of low-cost tractors. The government can play an important role in facilitating the development of a tractor service market; however, the successful development of such a market depends on the incentive and innovation of the private sector, including farmers who want to own tractors as part of their business portfolio, traders who know how to bring in affordable tractors and expand the market, and manufacturers in exporting countries who want to seek a long-term potential market opportunity in Ghana and in other west African countries.