This monograph presents a time-dynamic model for multivariate claim counts in actuarial applications. Inspired by real-world claim arrivals, the model balances interesting stylized facts (such as dependence across the components, over-dispersion and the clustering of claims) with a high level of mathematical tractability (including estimation, sampling and convergence results for large portfolios) and can thus be applied in various contexts (such as risk management and pricing of (re-)insurance contracts). The authors provide a detailed analysis of the proposed probabilistic model, discussing its relation to the existing literature, its statistical properties, different estimation strategies as well as possible applications and extensions. Actuaries and researchers working in risk management and premium pricing will find this book particularly interesting. Graduate-level probability theory, stochastic analysis and statistics are required.

Since 1980, methods for recursive evaluation of aggregate claims distributions have received extensive attention in the actuarial literature. This book gives a unified survey of the theory and is intended to be self-contained to a large extent. As the methodology is applicable also outside the actuarial field, it is presented in a general setting, but actuarial applications are used for motivation. The book is divided into two parts. Part I is devoted to univariate distributions, whereas in Part II, the methodology is extended to multivariate settings. Primarily intended as a monograph, this book can also be used as text for courses on the graduate level. Suggested outlines for such courses are given. The book is of interest for actuaries and statisticians working within the insurance and finance industry, as well as for people in other fields like operations research and reliability theory.

A valuable overview of the most important ideas and results in statistical modeling Written by a highly-experienced author, Foundations of Linear and Generalized Linear Models is a clear and comprehensive guide to the key concepts and results of linearstatistical models. The book presents a broad, in-depth overview of the most commonly usedstatistical models by discussing the theory underlying the models, R software applications,and examples with crafted models to elucidate key ideas and promote practical modelbuilding. The book begins by illustrating the fundamentals of linear models, such as how the model-fitting projects the data onto a model vector subspace and how orthogonal decompositions of the data yield information about the effects of explanatory variables. Subsequently, the book covers the most popular generalized linear models, which include binomial and multinomial logistic regression for categorical data, and Poisson and negative binomial loglinear models for count data. Focusing on the theoretical underpinnings of these models, Foundations ofLinear and Generalized Linear Models also features: An introduction to quasi-likelihood methods that require weaker distributional assumptions, such as generalized estimating equation methods An overview of linear mixed models and generalized linear mixed models with random effects for clustered correlated data, Bayesian modeling, and extensions to handle problematic cases such as high dimensional problems Numerous examples that use R software for all text data analyses More than 400 exercises for readers to practice and extend the theory, methods, and data analysis A supplementary website with datasets for the examples and exercises An invaluable textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level students in statistics and biostatistics courses, Foundations of Linear and Generalized Linear Models is also an excellent reference for practicing statisticians and biostatisticians, as well as anyone who is interested in learning about the most important statistical models for analyzing data.

Enrique Castillo is a leading figure in several mathematical and engineering fields. Organized to honor Castillo’s significant contributions, this volume is an outgrowth of the "International Conference on Mathematical and Statistical Modeling," and covers recent advances in the field. Applications to safety, reliability and life-testing, financial modeling, quality control, general inference, as well as neural networks and computational techniques are presented.

Predictive modeling uses data to forecast future events. It exploits relationships between explanatory variables and the predicted variables from past occurrences to predict future outcomes. Forecasting financial events is a core skill that actuaries routinely apply in insurance and other risk-management applications. Predictive Modeling Applications in Actuarial Science emphasizes life-long learning by developing tools in an insurance context, providing the relevant actuarial applications, and introducing advanced statistical techniques that can be used to gain a competitive advantage in situations with complex data. Volume 2 examines applications of predictive modeling. Where Volume 1 developed the foundations of predictive modeling, Volume 2 explores practical uses for techniques, focusing on property and casualty insurance. Readers are exposed to a variety of techniques in concrete, real-life contexts that demonstrate their value and the overall value of predictive modeling, for seasoned practicing analysts as well as those just starting out.

There are a wide range of variables for actuaries to consider when calculating a motorist’s insurance premium, such as age, gender and type of vehicle. Further to these factors, motorists’ rates are subject to experience rating systems, including credibility mechanisms and Bonus Malus systems (BMSs). Actuarial Modelling of Claim Counts presents a comprehensive treatment of the various experience rating systems and their relationships with risk classification. The authors summarize the most recent developments in the field, presenting ratemaking systems, whilst taking into account exogenous information. The text: Offers the first self-contained, practical approach to a priori and a posteriori ratemaking in motor insurance. Discusses the issues of claim frequency and claim severity, multi-event systems, and the combinations of deductibles and BMSs. Introduces recent developments in actuarial science and exploits the generalised linear model and generalised linear mixed model to achieve risk classification. Presents credibility mechanisms as refinements of commercial BMSs. Provides practical applications with real data sets processed with SAS software. Actuarial Modelling of Claim Counts is essential reading for students in actuarial science, as well as practicing and academic actuaries. It is also ideally suited for professionals involved in the insurance industry, applied mathematicians, quantitative economists, financial engineers and statisticians.