The main theme of this monograph is “comparative statistical inference. ” While the topics covered have been carefully selected (they are, for example, restricted to pr- lems of statistical estimation), my aim is to provide ideas and examples which will assist a statistician, or a statistical practitioner, in comparing the performance one can expect from using either Bayesian or classical (aka, frequentist) solutions in - timation problems. Before investing the hours it will take to read this monograph, one might well want to know what sets it apart from other treatises on comparative inference. The two books that are closest to the present work are the well-known tomes by Barnett (1999) and Cox (2006). These books do indeed consider the c- ceptual and methodological differences between Bayesian and frequentist methods. What is largely absent from them, however, are answers to the question: “which - proach should one use in a given problem?” It is this latter issue that this monograph is intended to investigate. There are many books on Bayesian inference, including, for example, the widely used texts by Carlin and Louis (2008) and Gelman, Carlin, Stern and Rubin (2004). These books differ from the present work in that they begin with the premise that a Bayesian treatment is called for and then provide guidance on how a Bayesian an- ysis should be executed. Similarly, there are many books written from a classical perspective.

Drawing upon the recent explosion of research in the field, a diverse group of scholars surveys the latest strategies for solving ecological inference problems, the process of trying to infer individual behavior from aggregate data. The uncertainties and information lost in aggregation make ecological inference one of the most difficult areas of statistical inference, but these inferences are required in many academic fields, as well as by legislatures and the Courts in redistricting, marketing research by business, and policy analysis by governments. This wide-ranging collection of essays offers many fresh and important contributions to the study of ecological inference.

Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds readers’ knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today’s model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work. The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation. By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling. Web Resource The book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author’s website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

This book offers researchers a systematic and accessible introduction to using a Bayesian framework in structural equation modeling (SEM). Stand-alone chapters on each SEM model clearly explain the Bayesian form of the model and walk the reader through implementation. Engaging worked-through examples from diverse social science subfields illustrate the various modeling techniques, highlighting statistical or estimation problems that are likely to arise and describing potential solutions. For each model, instructions are provided for writing up findings for publication, including annotated sample data analysis plans and results sections. Other user-friendly features in every chapter include "Major Take-Home Points," notation glossaries, annotated suggestions for further reading, and sample code in both Mplus and R. The companion website (www.guilford.com/depaoli-materials) supplies data sets; annotated code for implementation in both Mplus and R, so that users can work within their preferred platform; and output for all of the book’s examples.

Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.

This Oxford Handbook offers a comprehensive and authoritative review of important developments in computational and mathematical psychology. With chapters written by leading scientists across a variety of subdisciplines, it examines the field's influence on related research areas such as cognitive psychology, developmental psychology, clinical psychology, and neuroscience. The Handbook emphasizes examples and applications of the latest research, and will appeal to readers possessing various levels of modeling experience. The Oxford Handbook of Computational and mathematical Psychology covers the key developments in elementary cognitive mechanisms (signal detection, information processing, reinforcement learning), basic cognitive skills (perceptual judgment, categorization, episodic memory), higher-level cognition (Bayesian cognition, decision making, semantic memory, shape perception), modeling tools (Bayesian estimation and other new model comparison methods), and emerging new directions in computation and mathematical psychology (neurocognitive modeling, applications to clinical psychology, quantum cognition). The Handbook would make an ideal graduate-level textbook for courses in computational and mathematical psychology. Readers ranging from advanced undergraduates to experienced faculty members and researchers in virtually any area of psychology--including cognitive science and related social and behavioral sciences such as consumer behavior and communication--will find the text useful.

Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting presents three statistical frameworks for modern demographic estimation and forecasting. The frameworks draw on recent advances in statistical methodology to provide new tools for tackling challenges such as disaggregation, measurement error, missing data, and combining multiple data sources. The methods apply to single demographic series, or to entire demographic systems. The methods unify estimation and forecasting, and yield detailed measures of uncertainty. The book assumes minimal knowledge of statistics, and no previous knowledge of demography. The authors have developed a set of R packages implementing the methods. Data and code for all applications in the book are available on www.bdef-book.com. "This book will be welcome for the scientific community of forecasters...as it presents a new approach which has already given important results and which, in my opinion, will increase its importance in the future." ~Daniel Courgeau, Institut national d'études démographiques