Equity in housing is a major component of household wealth in the United States. Steady gains in housing prices over the last several decades have generated large potential gains in household wealth among homeowners. Mankiw and Weil (1989) and McFadden (1993b) have argued that the aging of the US population is likely to induce substantial declines in housing prices, resulting in capital losses for future elderly generations. However, if households can anticipate changes in housing prices, and if they adjust their non-housing savings accordingly, then welfare losses in retirement could be mitigated. This paper focuses on two questions: (1) Are housing prices forecastable from current information on demographics and housing prices?; and (2) How are household savings decisions affected by capital gains in housing? We use metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level data on housing prices and demographic trends during the 1980's and find mixed evidence on the forecastability of housing prices. Further, we use data on five-year savings rates from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and find no evidence that households engage in changing their non-housing savings in response to expectations about capital gains in housing. Thus, the projected decline in housing prices could result in large welfare losses to current homeowners and large intergenerational equity differences

Equity in housing is a major component of household wealth in the United States. Steady gains in housing prices over the last several decades have generated large potential gains in household wealth among homeowners. Mankiw and Weil (1989) and McFadden (1993b) have argued that the aging of the US population is likely to induce substantial declines in housing prices, resulting in capital losses for future elderly generations. However, if households can anticipate changes in housing prices, and if they adjust their non-housing savings accordingly, then welfare losses in retirement could be mitigated. This paper focuses on two questions: (1) Are housing prices forecastable from current information on demographics and housing prices?; and (2) How are household savings decisions affected by capital gains in housing? We use metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level data on housing prices and demographic trends during the 1980's and find mixed evidence on the forecastability of housing prices. Further, we use data on five-year savings rates from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and find no evidence that households engage in changing their non-housing savings in response to expectations about capital gains in housing. Thus, the projected decline in housing prices could result in large welfare losses to current homeowners and large intergenerational equity differences.

The aim of the research in Wealth Flight is to provide insight into the social association and economic variables that relate to the disparity affecting low-income communities. These communities rarely begin as a low-income environment, but when they are described as such, they are often considered small communities. This book focuses on working-class communities that at one time were thriving towns, but due to socioeconomic change, are presently considered low-income or disadvantaged. The intent is to bring attention to the factors that have created this shift, and how these change points can be remedied to help these towns, cities, and their educational systems. Author Dr. Monica D. Shepherd does not simply focus on the problem and in turn report on poverty, but rather advocates for proposed changes that can benefit residents. The goal is to explain the concerns and suggest solutions. Although not all applications are feasible, a significant number of the findings are achievable. Dr. Shepherd explains how the housing market is a predictor for community change. "What inspired me most was that past literature on this topic addressed components solely associated with economic, psychological, or racial discrimination as a catalyst for a community downturn. Although these components are independently important, this book intentionally combined the changes that can serve as a reasonable intersecting variable for reasons why stewards of place would benefit low-income communities." (About the Author) An Illinois native, University Professor Monica D. Shepherd, Ph.D., is a mix methods research methodologist and historian. Dr. Shepherd specializes in urban history with a focus on economics, systems theory, public and educational policy. Dr. Shepherd's major research also includes data analysis, econometrics models, system dynamics, prediction synthesis, case studies, community demographics trends, and investigating pathologies.

This volume takes into account the difficulties created by the US census data being published in two separate categories: population and housing. It aims to give cross disciplinary investigations of population and housing an identity and a common name: housing demography. Essays commissioned especially for the volume address four main issues: household formation and composition; housing choices; housing construction and inventory change; and spatial patterns and consequences.