By using COSMO-ART, highly resolved process study simulations for 2-3 July 2016 are conducted to assess the aerosol effect on the meteorological conditions of southern West Africa. The meteorological phenomenon Evening Monsoon Flow Enhancement (EMFE) is identified as highly susceptible to the aerosol direct effect, leading to a spatial shift of the EMFE front. In a second aerosol feedback chain the aerosol variation leads to a temporal shift of the stratus-to-cumulus transition.

By using COSMO-ART, highly resolved process study simulations for 2-3 July 2016 are conducted to assess the aerosol effect on the meteorological conditions of southern West Africa. The meteorological phenomenon Evening Monsoon Flow Enhancement (EMFE) is identified as highly susceptible to the aerosol direct effect, leading to a spatial shift of the EMFE front. In a second aerosol feedback chain the aerosol variation leads to a temporal shift of the stratus-to-cumulus transition. This work was published by Saint Philip Street Press pursuant to a Creative Commons license permitting commercial use. All rights not granted by the work's license are retained by the author or authors.

The impact of land-surface properties like vegetation, soil type, soil moisture, and the orography on the atmosphere is manifold. These features determine the evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer, convective conditions, cloud evolution and precipitation. The impact of model grid spacing and land-surface resolution on convective precipitation over heterogeneous surfaces is investigated using ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) simulations within the framework of the HD(CP)2 project.

Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are weather systems that substantially modulate the large-scale extratropical circulation. As they can amplify forecast errors and project them onto the Rossby wave pattern, they are of high relevance for numerical weather prediction. This work elaborates on two aspects of WCBs in the context of ensemble forecasts: (1) sensitivities of WCBs to the representation of initial condition and model uncertainties, and (2) the role of WCBs for forecast error growth.

This study systematically investigates the representation of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) in large reforecast data sets of different numerical weather prediction models and evaluates the role of WCBs for the onset and life cycle of Atlantic-European weather regimes. The results emphasize the importance of accurate forecast of WCBs for sub-seasonal prediction on time scales beyond two weeks and tie the low forecast skill of blocked weather regimes over Europe to misrepresented WCBs.